Global Economic Outlook: What to Expect in the Week of 2 June 2025

Introduction: A Critical Week for Global Markets

As the global economy transitions into mid-2025, all eyes are set on a pivotal week loaded with significant economic data and central bank decisions.

The week beginning 2 June 2025 promises a flurry of high-impact events—from global PMI releases to the anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut, alongside crucial updates from the U.S. labour market.

Investors, analysts, and policymakers will be watching closely to gauge the health of the global economy amidst persistent inflationary concerns, evolving trade dynamics, and geopolitical tensions.

Global Highlights: PMI Surveys and ECB in Focus

Global PMIs Offer Insight into Manufacturing and Services Activity

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports for both manufacturing and services sectors will provide crucial data on global business conditions during May.

These indicators, monitored closely by markets, will offer a comprehensive snapshot of inflation, employment trends, and business confidence.

Preliminary data has already signalled uneven economic momentum. While the United States displayed stronger performance, economies such as the eurozone, Japan, and the UK recorded mild contractions.

This divergence may reflect the early impact of newly announced tariffs, particularly in the U.S., where manufacturers and service providers have reportedly rushed to secure supplies before price increases take effect.

Key Data to Watch Across Major Economies

United States: Labour Market in the Spotlight

The upcoming release of U.S. non-farm payroll data will be a major event on Friday.

April’s figures beat expectations with 177,000 new jobs added, but this was a slight dip from the 185,000 recorded in March.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.

However, economists remain cautious, citing potential delayed effects from April’s tariff measures, which could curb hiring in the coming months.

Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, as well as factory orders and job openings (JOLTs), are expected to shape perceptions of demand strength and economic resilience.

While recent flash PMIs indicated a pick-up in output, underlying trends suggested the surge may be linked to short-term stockpiling ahead of tariff enforcement.

Canada: Interest Rate Decision and Labour Figures

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will meet during the week to decide on its policy stance.

Markets remain divided on whether a rate cut will be introduced at this stage, as inflationary trends still present complications.

In addition to the BoC decision, Canada will release updated figures on trade balance and employment, offering deeper insight into domestic economic momentum.

Eurozone and Germany: A Cluster of Critical Indicators

Besides the ECB’s rate decision, several other eurozone data points will be closely examined.

Flash inflation data (CPI) is set for release on Tuesday, which may influence the ECB’s rate rationale.

Germany, the bloc’s economic powerhouse, will report on factory orders and trade balances, both of which are vital indicators of manufacturing vitality and external demand.

Retail sales, unemployment levels, and the construction PMI are also on the docket, painting a fuller picture of the region’s recovery trajectory or lack thereof.

United Kingdom: Housing, Lending, and Construction Insights

In the UK, mortgage approvals and lending figures for April will be released early in the week. Final PMI readings—including the important Construction PMI—will be watched closely to assess how the real estate and building sectors are faring amidst broader macroeconomic uncertainties.

Additionally, the Halifax House Price Index, due Friday, will provide more granular insights into the housing market’s current state.

Asia-Pacific: Growth and Inflation Data Dominate

Australia will feature prominently with the release of its Q1 GDP data and detailed trade statistics.

Meanwhile, several Asia-Pacific economies including South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, and the Philippines will publish inflation reports for May.

These numbers will be instrumental in assessing the pace and persistence of inflation across the region.

Also worth noting are the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting minutes, which will offer clues into future policy direction.

Global Economic Calendar: Week of 2 June 2025

Monday, 2 June

• Market Holiday: China (Mainland), Colombia, Malaysia, New Zealand

• Global Manufacturing PMIs (continuing into Tuesday)

• Indonesia: April Trade & May Inflation

• Switzerland: April Retail Sales & Q1 GDP

• UK: April Mortgage Lending and Approvals

• Mexico: May Business Confidence

• US: May ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday, 3 June

• Market Holiday: South Korea, Thailand

• South Korea: May Inflation

• Australia: RBA May Meeting Minutes

• Switzerland: May Inflation

• Spain: May Unemployment Change

• Türkiye: May Inflation

• Italy: April Unemployment Rate

• Eurozone: May Flash Inflation

• South Africa: Q1 GDP

• Brazil: April Industrial Production

• US: April JOLTs Job Openings & Factory Orders

Wednesday, 4 June

• Global Services and Composite PMIs (continuing into Thursday)

• Australia: Q1 GDP

• US: May ADP Employment Change & ISM Services PMI

• Canada: BoC Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, 5 June

• Market Holiday: Denmark, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, UAE

• Australia: April Trade

• Singapore: April Retail Sales

• Switzerland: May Unemployment Rate

• Germany: April Factory Orders

• Eurozone: May Construction PMI

• Italy: April Retail Sales

• Taiwan: May Inflation

• UK: May Construction PMI

• Eurozone: ECB Interest Rate Decision

• Canada: April Trade

• US: April Trade Balance

• Global Sector PMIs

Friday, 6 June

• Market Holiday: Egypt, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Sweden, Türkiye, UAE

• Japan: April Household Spending

• Germany: April Trade & Industrial Production

• UK: May Halifax House Price Index

• France: April Trade & Industrial Production

• Eurozone: April Retail Sales

• Canada: May Unemployment Rate

• US: May Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings

Conclusion: A Defining Week for Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment

The first week of June 2025 is set to be a defining moment for global financial markets and economic forecasting.

With central banks recalibrating their policies and growth signals diverging across regions, the data releases ahead will play a critical role in shaping future rate expectations and investor positioning.

In particular, the ECB’s interest rate decision, U.S. payroll report, and worldwide PMIs are expected to generate strong market reactions.

These insights will not only illuminate current economic health but also influence monetary strategies in the second half of the year.

As inflationary trends, geopolitical disruptions, and shifting trade patterns continue to unfold, staying informed and responsive will remain essential for navigating the complexities of the global economy in 2025.